“The NFER’s modelling clearly shows the folly of the DfE’s proposals for a meagre pay award of 6.5% spread over three years.
“It forecasts a significant fall in the supply of secondary teachers after 2026-27 which would be outstripped by demand even though pupil numbers are projected to decrease.
“By 2028-29 the modelling suggests fewer than half the target number of secondary school trainee teachers would be recruited.
“It is imperative that the STRB recommends a pay award sufficient to ensure that schools have enough teachers in the future, and that the government provides the funding necessary for schools to be able to afford pay awards.
“It is simply not acceptable to expect schools to make up funding shortfalls for nationally agreed pay awards from budgets which are already stretched as this inevitably means further cutbacks.
“We encourage the DfE to set out a comprehensive strategy for boosting teacher recruitment and retention which also looks at how to reduce excessive workloads driven by systemic pressures.
“We cannot go on expecting ever more from leaders and teachers with ever fewer resources.”